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Accident Risk and Consequences, Real Time Consequences Prediction



The emergency actions following an accidental release of hazardous substance (toxic or flammable) is strongly related to the best available knowledge of the accident and its short term evolution: the location of the source, the mass flow rate of the release, the velocity at which it is released and the duration of the release. These parameters, along with the air flow on the site, will determine the spatial extent of the toxic cloud in time.



Accident Risk and Consequences Real Time Consequences Prediction



Precision is achieved by using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of the atmospheric flows on a complex topography with obstacles, which standard Gaussian or integral models cannot provide. The location and intensity of the source term is determined using a probabilistic approach exploiting both real time monitoring sensors and pre-calculated and validated dispersion results.


While the major part of the planning is based on risk assessment and training prior to accident, a real-time description, (indeed faster-than-real-time) and mapping of the pollutant spread would therefore be extremely valuable information for the management of emergency response both on site and around the site. The production of such pollutant concentration maps in time for decision-making requires capacity to perform fast simulations of the dispersion with reliable precision.

Accident Risk and Consequences Real Time Consequences Prediction